Newest opinion piece. Enjoy and feel free to respond.
Israel finds itself at a critical juncture towards what may become the final act of the two State solution. A Palestinian inversion towards this principle and the adoption of a one State solution as the strategy for the Palestinian National movement would constitute an 'earthquake' for Israel's national security.
In recent weeks, due in part to stalled negotiations and the re-strengthening of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, certain West Bank Palestinian Authority officials have threatened to reverse their position regarding the two State solution. This solution would be replaced by the demand for a binational State, or the one State solution. This trend manifested itself currently with statements made by the two highest ranking Palestinian officials in the West Bank; P.A. Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and former P.A. Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei.
Upcoming elections in Israel and the persistent weakness of the Palestinian political system have all but assured that the current round of negotiations will not succeed. In a March 2008 interview with Agence France-Presse, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erakat emphatically stated that the "P.A. will collapse unless there is a peace agreement reached in 2008, with dire consequences for the rest of the region."
This begs the question, can Israel afford the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority? With Hamas reconstituting itself in the Gaza Strip and gradually encroaching on P.A. turf in key West Bank cities, they stand ready to fill the massive vacuum certain to be created by any P.A. dissolution (For my piece on Hamas please click here.) The implications for Israel's national security will be severe. Moreover, Israel's standing as the 'regions lone democracy' will be at risk.
The basis of the one State solution - one man, one vote - will recast Israel as an illiberal Democracy. At stake are Israel's status as a 'Jewish State', democracy, and its national security. Israel's refusal to form a binational consensus will damage its democratic status. It's acquiescence to Palestinian demands will cause a massive demographic shift, ending Israel's status as a 'Jewish State'. Regardless of the path this 'nuclear option' takes, Israel's national security will certainly come under increased risk, with Hamas offering the only institutional security apparatus outside of the Palestinian Authority.
In a world where nuclear weapons equal political cache, the Palestinians have been able to develop the cheapest yet most potent of them all.
The question now is who pulls the trigger first? Tehran or Ramallah?
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