Saturday, August 30, 2008

Note to America: Meet Me in Damascus

The old saying goes a little something like this: 'In the Middle East, you can have no war without Egypt, and no peace without Syria.'

In this context, Syria is rising as a major component of any settlement reached in Lebanon, and plays a central role in the triangular ties between Hizballah, Hamas, and Iran. Moreover, with its Baathist roots, Syria plays a key role in mobilizing disaffected Sunni Baathist remnants of the old Saddam regime in Iraq. Throw in Syria's outstanding dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights and its strengthening ties with a re-emerging, expansionist Russia and you'll see how this old saying still holds true to this day.

Achieving Syria's cooperation is a key component in any new arrangement made for regional stability. Damascus has served as Iran's conduit for arms and money to Hizballah-controlled southern Lebanon for years. Moreover, it hosts the offices of Hamas's political bureau, headed by Khaled Meshaal. With recent U.S. attempts to establish missile defense bases in Russia's backyard, Damascus has offered to both host Russian missile batteries and open up Syrian ports to Russian naval personnel, a move sure to disturb the balance of proxy power in the Middle East. With Damascus at the center of every significant policy question facing the region today, it would behoove Washington to engage Syria in a constructive and substantive dialogue.

Any discussion on Syria starts and ends with the Golan Heights. Israel captured this swath of land during the Six-Day War of 1967. In recent months Israeli and Syrian negotiators have engaged in intensive, direct and indirect, Turkish-mediated talks on the Golan Heights; with little success. Damascus has held out for further, direct American involvement in negotiations. This presents a golden opportunity for the current American administration to engage their Syrian counterparts.

American-sponsored, direct negotiations between Syria and Israel will provide the opportunity to achieve relative regional stability vis a vie shrinking Iran's sphere of influence. Syria, being both secular and Baathist, shares very little in terms of religious and political ideology with their Iranian and Lebanese counterparts. For this reason Syria is looking for a Camp David style aid-package in exchange for any potential regional alliance. American backed negotiations between Syria and Israel should be incentive based, with the incentive being directly tied to the amount of the Golan Heights Israel returns to Syria. The more land Syria demands, the less they will receive in financial incentives. Syria would also be able to expect a U.S.-Syria alliance along the lines of the one that currently exists between the U.S., Jordan, and Egypt.

In exchange for American financial and political support, and a to be determined percentage of the Golan Heights, Syria would have to sever its ties with an increasingly weakened Iranian regime, allow for Israeli early-warning systems to be deployed, shut down all Hamas-related administrative offices, and cease any and all arms transfers to Hizballah-controlled south Lebanon. Syria would also receive limited American military and training aid, solely for the purposes of securing Syria's border with Iraq.

These steps are tailored to allow a Syrian regime capable of standing and walking, but not jumping and running. A Syria that can walk knows that any failure to abide by the terms of the agreement would result in an immediate Israeli re-deployment in the Golan Heights.

It is ironic that in a Middle East where it is perceived that petrol-dictators and Islamists hold all the bargaining chips; a secular, weakened, resource baron country would serve as the pressure point for many of the regions unresolved problems.

The beauty of this irony is that it keeps us sane, even in the Middle East.

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